In Myanmar, a relatively new ethnic armed group known as the Arakan Army has recently taken control of 15 out of 17 townships in the war-torn country's western Rakhine state. This includes the Myanmar military's western regional command headquarters located in Ann Township, in central Rakhine state. This marks the second major regional command center to fall since the beginning of a surge in resistance victories by allied ethnic armed groups – the "Three Brotherhood Alliance" – known as Operation 1027 in late 2023.

The significant territorial gains by the AA are reshaping power dynamics in Myanmar's civil war, observers say. The ethnic army's growing control over Rakhine state is also drawing attention to the plight of the country's Muslim ethnic Rohingya minority.

In a recent phone interview with VOA's Burmese service, AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha said the group continued to hold its ground.

"As of December 29, 2024, our AA has completely occupied all the military bases of the fascist military council in Gwa Township. We are pursuing and attacking retreating forces," Khaing Thu Kha said.

In response, Myanmar's military has launched heavy artillery strikes from air and sea but was unsuccessful in its attempts to retake Gwa, the spokesperson added. The junta did not respond to VOA on the issue.

The Arakan Army's gains continued this week, as it seized a key oil and gas pipeline station and closed in on a major weapons factory of the Myanmar military.

The fall of Gwa follows the army's seizing of Ann township earlier in December, when it captured the military's western regional command headquarters after intense fighting, marking another major loss for Myanmar's military.

In July, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, another ethnic armed group, popularly known as the Kokang army — seized the military's regional command headquarters in Lashio, in the northern part of Shan state.

"In the history of Myanmar's military, losing two regional commands in such a short period is unprecedented," former Myanmar army Major Naung Yoe told VOA. "These regional commands oversee vast operational areas and are critical to military control."

Naung Yoe, who is now part of the anti-junta civil disobedience movement group People's Goal, is based along the Thai-Myanmar border. He attributes the Arakan Army's success to strategy and strong local support.

"The courage of the AA soldiers, their disciplined command structure, and the overwhelming support of the Rakhine people have played key roles in their victories," he said.

The military has not responded in the media on recent fighting in Rakhine state.

Strategic battleground

Rakhine state, with its abundant natural resources and access to the Bay of Bengal, is strategically significant. It is home to major China-backed infrastructure projects and holds geopolitical importance as a gateway to Southeast Asia.

The state is predominantly inhabited by Rakhine Buddhists, with Rohingya Muslims making up the second-largest population. The Rohingya have faced systemic persecution, culminating in the 2017 military crackdown that forced over 700,000 to flee to Bangladesh. Myanmar's military is now facing international legal proceedings on charges of genocide and other war crimes.

This latest round of fighting between the military and the Arakan Army, which began in late 2023 following Operation1027 has been fierce. Dozens of Rohingya civilians were killed during junta attacks, some with heavy artillery fired at AA troops based in Rohingya villages, according to local human rights organizations.

The Arakan Army, formed in 2009 by Rakhine youth leaders, is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that is fighting the junta alongside the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'Ang National Liberation Army.

With an estimated 45,000 troops, the AA says it seeks autonomy for Rakhine state, aiming to "restore the sovereignty of the Arakan people."

However, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has condemned abuses by both the military and the AA, citing forced recruitment, extrajudicial killings and indiscriminate attacks that violate international law. AA offensives have reportedly displaced tens of thousands of civilians, including many Rohingya.

On Aug. 5, dozens of Rohingya were killed near the Naf River, which divides Myanmar from Bangladesh, underscoring their plight as they remain trapped between escalating violence and closed borders with little safe refuge.

Rohingya calls for justice

In late December, 28 Rohingya organizations issued a joint statement calling on the AA, which now controls Maungdaw and Buthidaung townships in northern Rakhine, to "uphold and respect the rights of Rohingya and other ethnic and religious minorities" in the region bordering Bangladesh.

Cox's Bazar in southeastern Bangladesh hosts over 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, most of whom fled Myanmar following the military crackdown in August 2017.

Meanwhile, approximately 500,000 Rohingya remain in Myanmar, living in areas now under AA control, including territories along the Bangladesh border.

"The AA has reached a position where it can control up to 14 cities," Tun Khin, president of the Burmese Rohingya Organization U.K., or BROUK, told VOA Burmese by phone. BROUK is among the 28 organizations behind the joint statement.

"However, human rights violations against the Rohingya continue, especially in places like Buthidaung and Maungdaw," Tun Khin said. "As a result, the Rohingya have not been able to return to their homes. It is critical to stop the daily abuses inflicted on the Rohingya by AA forces."

After the AA captured Buthidaung and Maungdaw, nearly 60,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh, Tun Khin said.

"AA, much like the Burmese military, is driving the Rohingya from their homes, perpetuating a cycle of displacement," he said.

The Rohingya and other Rakhine minorities must find a way to live peacefully together, he said.

"The Rohingya have supported the Burmese revolution and stood alongside revolutionary forces like the AA," Tun Khin said, "yet, they have been forcibly driven from their homes during clashes between the AA and the Burmese army. This is unacceptable. The AA is committing similar crimes to those perpetrated by the Burmese military."

A path toward dialogue?

For its part, the Arakan Army reiterated its commitment to dialogue late last month.

"We remain steadfast in our belief that current internal issues can and should be resolved through political means rather than military solutions," the group said in a statement.

In his New Year's speech, however, Myanmar's military leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, accused ethnic armed groups of pursuing selfish interests and inciting conflict while claiming to support democracy.

He also reiterated the junta's commitment to holding elections, citing the completion of a national census and other administrative milestones, and pledged that elections would take place this year.

During the 50th anniversary of Rakhine State Day on Dec. 15, Min Aung Hlaing called on ethnic armed groups, including the Arakan Army, to "abandon the armed path and choose the right course."

Myanmar's military rulers have not directly responded to the AA's offer for dialogue, according to Naung Yoe, the former Myanmar army major.

"The prospects for a resolution remain bleak. I still don't see a dialogue emerging that could resolve the differences between the two sides," he told VOA.

Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing recently reiterated his support for the 2008 constitution, framing it as essential for Myanmar’s future. That constitution allowed the formation of a partially civilian government but guaranteed the military’s continued role in politics. The military overthrew the elected government in a coup in 2021.

Ethnic leaders, however, reject any political framework that involves the military.

"With the junta clinging to the 2008 constitution and ethnic leaders envisioning a political future without military involvement, the chances of reconciliation are slim," Naung Yoe said.

He also pointed to the Arakan Army's intention to control all of Rakhine state as a potential stumbling block as well.

"If political reconciliation remains unattainable, the conflict will likely escalate further in early 2025," he said.